India needs a new playbook for Naya America that needs careful handling

Pakistan lost the last bout with India, but gained a field marshal, a renewed presence in Washington, and the possibility of getting Donald Trump in its corner. India achieved military dominance in Op Sindoor, but with the grim realisation that China is now an active participant in India-Pak hostilities, including sharing real-time satellite intelligence and advanced weaponry with Rawalpindi.

Somewhere in this, the India-US relationship acquired wrinkles that just weren't there. In 2020, Trump had reached out to help India when China encroached across the LoAC. This time, Trump appeared to be standing with a state sponsor of terrorism and nuclear proliferator.

India's nose was put out of joint by POTUS inserting himself into an India-Pak crisis.

Trump is presiding over an administration with postage stamp-level India expertise. He was doing real estate-type 'price discovery' negotiations with India and Pakistan, and the prospect of 'stopping nuclear war' was too inviting to resist, even though the prospect wasn't actually real.

Since then, Indians have alternately sulked and ranted against American perfidy, with officially-inspired and spiralling social media vitriol now threatening to become counterproductive to Indian interests. Multiparty delegations and authoritative statements by CDS Anil Chauhan have recovered a lot of ground. Nevertheless, there are certain new realities at play India has to be mindful of.

• India has to continue to raise costs for Pakistan. It's the only way it can raise costs of misadventure for China, which is targeting India in a two-front conflict.

• The world doesn't actually care about India-Pakistan in the way it used to. India had a free hand to respond to Pahalgam and did a creditable job - until US 'spread the raita'.

• India needs a new playbook for the US - there is a 'Naya America'. The US is not the enemy, but needs careful handling.

Earlier, India did business with official America and leveraged its diaspora for, well, brownie points. We did yoga days, celebrated Indian Americans at the helm of corporate America, and strategised with the US to counter an expansionist China via 'soft-serve' arrangements like Quad. India now has to deal with several Americas: Official America, where India remains the 'most consequential partner of the 21st c.'; Tech-Wall Street America, where the India play is much thinner; and Mar-a-Lago America a.k.a. Trump's family and friends, where the 'art of the deal' holds sway.

The US-China competition is real. But it doesn't follow a comforting linear pattern any longer. The unpredictable Trump landscape means that sometimes things look that they're going awry. New Delhi's natural caution will now need nerves of steel.

In the foreign policy space, the traditional tussle between National Security Council and State Department may be resolving itself in favour of the latter, as Marco Rubio quietly consolidates his position. Similarly, power balances are still shifting in trade, finance, tech and defence spaces. What does the Indian to-do list look like?

The BTA is priority. And, reportedly, it should happen before the July deadline. That was actually one of the smartest things India did.

Open the floodgates for more dependable and stable power by amending the nuclear liability law. This will enable Indian private sector to enter and flourish in nuclear energy and power data centres, and leapfrog with AI in manufacturing. The US is now in the business of energy abundance, less in energy efficiency. India is in both spaces. So, we have to craft our own path here. GoI has promised to move amendments to the nuclear laws in the monsoon session. Let's do it.

Put defence manufacturing and procurement in top gear. Pakistan may soon be negotiating a critical minerals deal with Trump. Islamabad's newly minted minister for crypto, Bilal bin Saqib, has promised a strategic bitcoin reserve. He assured White House's crypto counsel Robert 'Bo' Hines that energy-stressed Pakistan would dedicate 2,000 MW to power blockchain-based financial infra. This is clearly a way to leverage the Mar-a-Lago elite - of trumping India by getting into the US president's personal business space.

Indian governments regularly trot out official pride about the diaspora being 'model' - high achievers, clean noses.... Move over, Satya-Sundar. The old-fashioned solidness of the Indian immigrant - wealthy professionals, techies, doctors, scientists - is no longer the flavour of the season. Indian diaspora may no longer be 'preferred' in MAGAmerica.

New Indian-sounding stars in the Trump cryptoworld are people like Delphi Digital co-founder-president Anil Lulla, and software engineer Verjender Choudhary, who are big holders of Trump crypto. Not too long ago, governments were thinking like governments. The world is changing, and so is its currencies.

Inversion is the name of the game. Putin's spokesperson gave Trump credit for stopping the 'India-Pak war'. Sergey Lavrov is pushing a Russia-India-China summit before a Quad summit later this year, bringing a gleam to Indian eyes. Chinese components are all over Russian weaponry - just in case we want to teach the West a lesson.

On the other hand, Russia's spook system is increasingly wary of Chinese infiltration. But Russia is now too deep in with China to pull out. Leveraging the enemy against a friend is poor strategy. The logic of US-India convergence remains as strong today as it was before May 10.

India must be careful with its international strategies - it's our Kool-Aid, it's not for us to drink - and remain wary of foreign policy promiscuity. Our geopolitical and technology choices have become the same thing.